{"id":5211,"date":"2026-10-12T18:30:00","date_gmt":"2026-10-12T11:30:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/dykhoa.com\/blog\/?post_type=thuat_ngu&amp;p=5196"},"modified":"2026-10-12T18:30:00","modified_gmt":"2026-10-12T11:30:00","slug":"thien-lech-ke-song-sot-survivorship-bias","status":"publish","type":"thuat_ngu","link":"https:\/\/dykhoa.com\/blog\/thuat-ngu\/thien-lech-ke-song-sot-survivorship-bias\/","title":{"rendered":"Thi\u00ean l\u1ec7ch k\u1ebb s\u1ed1ng s\u00f3t (Survivorship Bias) l\u00e0 g\u00ec?"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><strong>Thi\u00ean l\u1ec7ch k\u1ebb s\u1ed1ng s\u00f3t (Survivorship Bias)<\/strong> l\u00e0 l\u1ed7i t\u01b0 duy nh\u1eadn th\u1ee9c nguy hi\u1ec3m trong \u0111\u00f3 con ng\u01b0\u1eddi r\u00fat ra b\u00e0i h\u1ecdc kinh nghi\u1ec7m ch\u1ec9 t\u1eeb m\u1ed9t nh\u00f3m nh\u1ecf nh\u1eefng ng\u01b0\u1eddi s\u1ed1ng s\u00f3t ho\u1eb7c th\u00e0nh c\u00f4ng r\u1ef1c r\u1ee1, d\u1eabn \u0111\u1ebfn nh\u1eefng k\u1ebft lu\u1eadn ho\u00e0n to\u00e0n sai l\u1ea7m v\u1ec1 nguy\u00ean nh\u00e2n d\u1eabn \u0111\u1ebfn th\u00e0nh c\u00f4ng.<\/p>\n<h2>B\u1ea3n ch\u1ea5t v\u00e0 \u0111\u1ecbnh ngh\u0129a h\u1ecdc thu\u1eadt<\/h2>\n<p>C\u00e2u chuy\u1ec7n kinh \u0111i\u1ec3n v\u1ec1 nh\u00e0 to\u00e1n h\u1ecdc Abraham Wald trong Th\u1ebf chi\u1ebfn II: Qu\u00e2n \u0111\u1ed9i M\u1ef9 nghi\u00ean c\u1ee9u c\u00e1c m\u00e1y bay n\u00e9m bom tr\u1edf v\u1ec1 sau tr\u1eadn chi\u1ebfn v\u00e0 th\u1ea5y c\u00e1c v\u1ebft \u0111\u1ea1n t\u1eadp trung d\u00e0y \u0111\u1eb7c \u1edf c\u00e1nh v\u00e0 th\u00e2n m\u00e1y bay. C\u00e1c t\u01b0\u1edbng l\u0129nh l\u1eadp t\u1ee9c \u0111\u1ec1 xu\u1ea5t b\u1ecdc th\u00eam gi\u00e1p s\u1eaft v\u00e0o c\u00e1nh v\u00e0 th\u00e2n. Abraham Wald \u0111\u00e3 ng\u0103n l\u1ea1i v\u00e0 ch\u1ec9 ra \u0111i\u1ec1u ng\u01b0\u1ee3c l\u1ea1i: Ph\u1ea3i b\u1ecdc gi\u00e1p v\u00e0o \u0111\u1ed9ng c\u01a1 \u2014 n\u01a1i kh\u00f4ng c\u00f3 v\u1ebft \u0111\u1ea1n n\u00e0o tr\u00ean c\u00e1c m\u00e1y bay tr\u1edf v\u1ec1! L\u00fd do: Nh\u1eefng chi\u1ebfc m\u00e1y bay b\u1ecb b\u1eafn tr\u00fang \u0111\u1ed9ng c\u01a1 \u0111\u1ec1u \u0111\u00e3 r\u01a1i n\u00e1t \u1edf chi\u1ebfn tr\u01b0\u1eddng v\u00e0 kh\u00f4ng bao gi\u1edd c\u00f3 c\u01a1 h\u1ed9i tr\u1edf v\u1ec1 \u0111\u1ec3 \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c ki\u1ec3m k\u00ea (nh\u1eefng k\u1ebb kh\u00f4ng s\u1ed1ng s\u00f3t).<\/p>\n<h2>B\u1ed1i c\u1ea3nh v\u00e0 \u1ee9ng d\u1ee5ng th\u1ef1c ti\u1ec5n<\/h2>\n<p>Thi\u00ean l\u1ec7ch n\u00e0y b\u00f9ng n\u1ed5 trong c\u00e1c cu\u1ed1n s\u00e1ch self-help v\u00e0 c\u00e1c kh\u00f3a h\u1ecdc l\u00e0m gi\u00e0u: M\u1ecdi ng\u01b0\u1eddi ca ng\u1ee3i vi\u1ec7c Bill Gates, Steve Jobs hay Mark Zuckerberg b\u1ecf h\u1ecdc \u0111\u1ea1i h\u1ecdc m\u00e0 v\u1eabn tr\u1edf th\u00e0nh t\u1ef7 ph\u00fa, t\u1eeb \u0111\u00f3 ng\u1ed9 nh\u1eadn r\u1eb1ng &#8220;b\u1ecf h\u1ecdc l\u00e0 b\u00ed quy\u1ebft th\u00e0nh c\u00f4ng&#8221;, ph\u1edbt l\u1edd h\u00e0ng tri\u1ec7u ng\u01b0\u1eddi b\u1ecf h\u1ecdc kh\u00e1c \u0111\u00e3 r\u01a1i v\u00e0o c\u1ea3nh th\u1ea5t nghi\u1ec7p v\u00e0 ngh\u00e8o kh\u00f3. Trong y t\u1ebf, ng\u01b0\u1eddi ta tin v\u00e0o &#8220;th\u1ea7n y ch\u1eefa ung th\u01b0&#8221; v\u00ec ch\u1ec9 nghe th\u1ea5y v\u00e0i ng\u01b0\u1eddi s\u1ed1ng s\u00f3t l\u00ean ti\u1ebfng c\u1ea3m \u01a1n, m\u00e0 kh\u00f4ng nghe \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c ti\u1ebfng n\u00f3i c\u1ee7a h\u00e0ng ng\u00e0n ng\u01b0\u1eddi \u0111\u00e3 qua \u0111\u1eddi d\u01b0\u1edbi tay \u00f4ng ta.<\/p>\n<h2>V\u00ed d\u1ee5 minh ho\u1ea1 th\u1ef1c t\u1ebf<\/h2>\n<p>Nhi\u1ec1u ng\u01b0\u1eddi n\u00f3i: &#8220;\u0110\u1ed3 gia d\u1ee5ng th\u1eddi x\u01b0a b\u1ec1n h\u01a1n b\u00e2y gi\u1edd nhi\u1ec1u, chi\u1ebfc qu\u1ea1t c\u1ed5 c\u1ee7a b\u00e0 t\u00f4i d\u00f9ng 50 n\u0103m v\u1eabn ch\u1ea1y t\u1ed1t&#8221;. Th\u1ef1c t\u1ebf l\u00e0 ch\u1ec9 nh\u1eefng chi\u1ebfc qu\u1ea1t c\u1ef1c t\u1ed1t m\u1edbi t\u1ed3n t\u1ea1i \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c 50 n\u0103m \u0111\u1ec3 b\u1ea1n nh\u00ecn th\u1ea5y; h\u00e0ng tri\u1ec7u chi\u1ebfc qu\u1ea1t t\u1ed3i c\u00f9ng th\u1eddi k\u1ef3 \u0111\u00f3 \u0111\u00e3 b\u1ecb v\u1ee9t v\u00e0o b\u00e3i r\u00e1c t\u1eeb 40 n\u0103m tr\u01b0\u1edbc.<\/p>\n<h2>Nh\u1eefng \u0111i\u1ec3m l\u01b0u \u00fd quan tr\u1ecdng<\/h2>\n<ul>\n<li>Mu\u1ed1n t\u00ecm hi\u1ec3u nguy\u00ean nh\u00e2n th\u00e0nh c\u00f4ng, ph\u1ea3i nghi\u00ean c\u1ee9u c\u1ea3 nh\u1eefng ng\u01b0\u1eddi th\u1ea5t b\u1ea1i (Ngh\u0129a \u0111\u1ecba v\u00f4 danh c\u1ee7a nh\u1eefng k\u1ebb kh\u00f4ng s\u1ed1ng s\u00f3t).<\/li>\n<li>Trong \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 t\u00e0i ch\u00ednh, c\u00e1c qu\u1ef9 \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 b\u1ecb gi\u1ea3i th\u1ec3 do thua l\u1ed7 th\u01b0\u1eddng b\u1ecb lo\u1ea1i kh\u1ecfi d\u1eef li\u1ec7u l\u1ecbch s\u1eed, t\u1ea1o ra \u1ea3o gi\u00e1c r\u1eb1ng t\u1ef7 l\u1ec7 sinh l\u1eddi c\u1ee7a ng\u00e0nh lu\u00f4n cao.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>L\u1ed7i ng\u1ee5y bi\u1ec7n logic khi ch\u1ec9 t\u1eadp trung \u0111\u00e1nh gi\u00e1 nh\u1eefng c\u00e1 nh\u00e2n ho\u1eb7c tr\u01b0\u1eddng h\u1ee3p \u0111\u00e3 v\u01b0\u1ee3t qua \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c m\u1ed9t quy tr\u00ecnh ch\u1ecdn l\u1ecdc (nh\u1eefng ng\u01b0\u1eddi th\u00e0nh c\u00f4ng) m\u00e0 ph\u1edbt l\u1edd ho\u00e0n to\u00e0n nh\u1eefng tr\u01b0\u1eddng h\u1ee3p \u0111\u00e3 th\u1ea5t b\u1ea1i v\u00e0 bi\u1ebfn m\u1ea5t.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"template":"","nhom_thuat_ngu":[476],"class_list":["post-5211","thuat_ngu","type-thuat_ngu","status-publish","hentry","nhom_thuat_ngu-nghien-cuu-bang-chung"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v28.7 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Thi\u00ean l\u1ec7ch k\u1ebb s\u1ed1ng s\u00f3t (Survivorship Bias) l\u00e0 g\u00ec? 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