{"id":7056,"date":"2026-10-16T16:00:00","date_gmt":"2026-10-16T09:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/dykhoa.com\/blog\/?p=7056"},"modified":"2026-10-20T19:41:14","modified_gmt":"2026-10-20T12:41:14","slug":"nguy-co-tuong-doi-va-tuyet-doi","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/dykhoa.com\/blog\/nguy-co-tuong-doi-va-tuyet-doi\/","title":{"rendered":"&#8220;T\u0103ng nguy c\u01a1 50%&#8221; ngh\u0129a l\u00e0 g\u00ec? Nguy c\u01a1 t\u01b0\u01a1ng \u0111\u1ed1i v\u00e0 tuy\u1ec7t \u0111\u1ed1i"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Khi m\u1ed9t b\u1ea3n tin vi\u1ebft &#8220;t\u0103ng nguy c\u01a1 50%&#8221;, con s\u1ed1 \u0111\u00f3 th\u01b0\u1eddng l\u00e0 nguy c\u01a1 t\u01b0\u01a1ng \u0111\u1ed1i: n\u00f3 so s\u00e1nh nh\u00f3m n\u00e0y v\u1edbi nh\u00f3m kia, ch\u1ee9 kh\u00f4ng cho bi\u1ebft b\u1ea1n c\u00f3 bao nhi\u00eau kh\u1ea3 n\u0103ng m\u1eafc b\u1ec7nh. Mu\u1ed1n bi\u1ebft con s\u1ed1 c\u00f3 \u0111\u00e1ng lo hay kh\u00f4ng, c\u1ea7n h\u1ecfi th\u00eam nguy c\u01a1 tuy\u1ec7t \u0111\u1ed1i: tr\u00ean 100 hay 1.000 ng\u01b0\u1eddi, c\u00f3 th\u00eam ho\u1eb7c b\u1edbt bao nhi\u00eau ng\u01b0\u1eddi g\u1eb7p chuy\u1ec7n. Nh\u00e0 t\u00e2m l\u00fd h\u1ecdc Gerd Gigerenzer (2009) khuy\u1ebfn ngh\u1ecb \u01b0u ti\u00ean tr\u00ecnh b\u00e0y nguy c\u01a1 tuy\u1ec7t \u0111\u1ed1i.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>T\u00f3m t\u1eaft nhanh:<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Nguy c\u01a1 t\u01b0\u01a1ng \u0111\u1ed1i cho bi\u1ebft &#8220;g\u1ea5p bao nhi\u00eau l\u1ea7n&#8221; so v\u1edbi nh\u00f3m kh\u00e1c.<\/li>\n\n<li>Nguy c\u01a1 tuy\u1ec7t \u0111\u1ed1i cho bi\u1ebft bao nhi\u00eau ng\u01b0\u1eddi tr\u00ean 1.000 ng\u01b0\u1eddi th\u1eadt s\u1ef1 b\u1ecb \u1ea3nh h\u01b0\u1edfng.<\/li>\n\n<li>C\u00f9ng l\u00e0 &#8220;gi\u1ea3m 50%&#8221;, s\u1ed1 ng\u01b0\u1eddi c\u1ea7n \u0111i\u1ec1u tr\u1ecb \u0111\u1ec3 m\u1ed9t ng\u01b0\u1eddi \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c l\u1ee3i c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 l\u00e0 5 ho\u1eb7c 100, t\u00f9y m\u1ee9c nguy c\u01a1 ban \u0111\u1ea7u.<\/li>\n\n<li>Khi \u0111\u1ecdc tin, h\u00e3y h\u1ecfi: t\u0103ng t\u1eeb bao nhi\u00eau l\u00ean bao nhi\u00eau, \u1edf nh\u00f3m ng\u01b0\u1eddi n\u00e0o, trong bao l\u00e2u.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Nguy c\u01a1 t\u01b0\u01a1ng \u0111\u1ed1i v\u00e0 nguy c\u01a1 tuy\u1ec7t \u0111\u1ed1i kh\u00e1c nhau th\u1ebf n\u00e0o?<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Nguy c\u01a1 tuy\u1ec7t \u0111\u1ed1i l\u00e0 kh\u1ea3 n\u0103ng m\u1ed9t s\u1ef1 vi\u1ec7c x\u1ea3y ra trong m\u1ed9t nh\u00f3m ng\u01b0\u1eddi; nguy c\u01a1 t\u01b0\u01a1ng \u0111\u1ed1i l\u00e0 ph\u00e9p so s\u00e1nh gi\u1eefa hai nh\u00f3m. V\u00ed d\u1ee5 gi\u1ea3 \u0111\u1ecbnh: trong 1.000 ng\u01b0\u1eddi kh\u00f4ng d\u00f9ng ch\u1ea5t X c\u00f3 2 ng\u01b0\u1eddi m\u1eafc b\u1ec7nh, c\u00f2n trong 1.000 ng\u01b0\u1eddi c\u00f3 d\u00f9ng ch\u1ea5t X c\u00f3 3 ng\u01b0\u1eddi m\u1eafc b\u1ec7nh.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Nguy c\u01a1 tuy\u1ec7t \u0111\u1ed1i: nh\u00f3m kh\u00f4ng d\u00f9ng l\u00e0 2\/1.000 = 0,2%; nh\u00f3m c\u00f3 d\u00f9ng l\u00e0 3\/1.000 = 0,3%.<\/li>\n\n<li>Nguy c\u01a1 t\u01b0\u01a1ng \u0111\u1ed1i: 3 chia 2 = 1,5, t\u1ee9c &#8220;t\u0103ng 50%&#8221;.<\/li>\n\n<li>M\u1ee9c t\u0103ng tuy\u1ec7t \u0111\u1ed1i: 3 tr\u1eeb 2 = 1 ng\u01b0\u1eddi tr\u00ean 1.000, t\u1ee9c 0,1 \u0111i\u1ec3m ph\u1ea7n tr\u0103m.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">C\u1ea3 ba con s\u1ed1 \u0111\u1ec1u \u0111\u00fang, nh\u01b0ng &#8220;t\u0103ng 50%&#8221; nghe \u0111\u00e1ng s\u1ee3 h\u01a1n nhi\u1ec1u so v\u1edbi &#8220;c\u1ee9 1.000 ng\u01b0\u1eddi th\u00ec th\u00eam 1 ng\u01b0\u1eddi m\u1eafc b\u1ec7nh&#8221;.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">V\u00ec sao ch\u1ec9 \u0111\u01b0a nguy c\u01a1 t\u01b0\u01a1ng \u0111\u1ed1i c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 g\u00e2y hi\u1ec3u l\u1ea7m?<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">V\u00ec con s\u1ed1 t\u01b0\u01a1ng \u0111\u1ed1i th\u01b0\u1eddng khi\u1ebfn t\u00e1c d\u1ee5ng ho\u1eb7c t\u00e1c h\u1ea1i tr\u00f4ng l\u1edbn h\u01a1n. M\u1ed9t t\u1ed5ng quan h\u1ec7 th\u1ed1ng c\u1ee7a Cochrane g\u1ed9p 35 nghi\u00ean c\u1ee9u (83 ph\u00e9p so s\u00e1nh) cho th\u1ea5y m\u1ee9c gi\u1ea3m nguy c\u01a1 t\u01b0\u01a1ng \u0111\u1ed1i \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c ng\u01b0\u1eddi \u0111\u1ecdc c\u1ea3m nh\u1eadn l\u00e0 l\u1edbn h\u01a1n v\u00e0 c\u00f3 s\u1ee9c thuy\u1ebft ph\u1ee5c h\u01a1n m\u1ee9c gi\u1ea3m nguy c\u01a1 tuy\u1ec7t \u0111\u1ed1i, d\u00f9 m\u1ee9c \u0111\u1ed9 hi\u1ec3u g\u1ea7n nh\u01b0 kh\u00f4ng kh\u00e1c (Akl v\u00e0 c\u1ed9ng s\u1ef1, 2011).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">N\u0103m 1995 t\u1ea1i Anh, m\u1ed9t c\u1ea3nh b\u00e1o cho bi\u1ebft thu\u1ed1c tr\u00e1nh thai th\u1ebf h\u1ec7 m\u1edbi l\u00e0m nguy c\u01a1 huy\u1ebft kh\u1ed1i t\u0103ng g\u1ea5p \u0111\u00f4i, t\u1ee9c &#8220;t\u0103ng 100%&#8221;. Th\u1ef1c t\u1ebf, c\u1ee9 7.000 ph\u1ee5 n\u1eef d\u00f9ng lo\u1ea1i thu\u1ed1c th\u1ebf h\u1ec7 tr\u01b0\u1edbc th\u00ec kho\u1ea3ng 1 ng\u01b0\u1eddi b\u1ecb huy\u1ebft kh\u1ed1i; v\u1edbi thu\u1ed1c th\u1ebf h\u1ec7 m\u1edbi, con s\u1ed1 l\u00e0 kho\u1ea3ng 2 ng\u01b0\u1eddi (Gigerenzer, 2009). Ph\u00e9p t\u00ednh:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>T\u01b0\u01a1ng \u0111\u1ed1i: (2 tr\u1eeb 1) chia 1 = 1, t\u1ee9c t\u0103ng 100%.<\/li>\n\n<li>Tuy\u1ec7t \u0111\u1ed1i: th\u00eam 1 ng\u01b0\u1eddi tr\u00ean 7.000, t\u1ee9c kho\u1ea3ng 0,014%.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Gigerenzer (2009) li\u00ean h\u1ec7 \u0111\u1ee3t ho\u1ea3ng s\u1ee3 n\u00e0y v\u1edbi \u01b0\u1edbc t\u00ednh kho\u1ea3ng 13.000 ca ph\u00e1 thai t\u0103ng th\u00eam \u1edf Anh v\u00e0 x\u1ee9 Wales trong n\u0103m ti\u1ebfp theo.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Th\u1ecbt ch\u1ebf bi\u1ebfn s\u1eb5n &#8220;t\u0103ng nguy c\u01a1 18%&#8221; ngh\u0129a l\u00e0 sao?<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u0110\u00e2y l\u00e0 nguy c\u01a1 t\u01b0\u01a1ng \u0111\u1ed1i. N\u0103m 2015, C\u01a1 quan Nghi\u00ean c\u1ee9u Ung th\u01b0 Qu\u1ed1c t\u1ebf (IARC) x\u1ebfp th\u1ecbt ch\u1ebf bi\u1ebfn s\u1eb5n v\u00e0o Nh\u00f3m 1 (g\u00e2y ung th\u01b0 cho ng\u01b0\u1eddi) v\u00e0 cho bi\u1ebft m\u1ed7i ph\u1ea7n 50 gam th\u1ecbt ch\u1ebf bi\u1ebfn \u0103n h\u1eb1ng ng\u00e0y l\u00e0m t\u0103ng nguy c\u01a1 ung th\u01b0 \u0111\u1ea1i tr\u1ef1c tr\u00e0ng 18% (IARC, 2015). English v\u00e0 Slevin (2015) gi\u1ea3i th\u00edch con s\u1ed1 n\u00e0y t\u01b0\u01a1ng \u1ee9ng nguy c\u01a1 t\u01b0\u01a1ng \u0111\u1ed1i 1,18, t\u1ee9c g\u1ea5p 1,18 l\u1ea7n ng\u01b0\u1eddi kh\u00f4ng \u0103n, v\u00e0 c\u1ea3nh b\u00e1o ng\u01b0\u1eddi \u0111\u1ecdc d\u1ec5 hi\u1ec3u nh\u1ea7m th\u00e0nh &#8220;18% ng\u01b0\u1eddi \u0103n s\u1ebd b\u1ecb ung th\u01b0&#8221;.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Quy ra nguy c\u01a1 tuy\u1ec7t \u0111\u1ed1i, hai t\u00e1c gi\u1ea3 \u01b0\u1edbc t\u00ednh cho ng\u01b0\u1eddi \u00dac, v\u1edbi gi\u1ea3 \u0111\u1ecbnh m\u00e0 ch\u00ednh h\u1ecd cho l\u00e0 kh\u00f3 \u0111\u00fang ho\u00e0n to\u00e0n (m\u1ed9t ph\u1ea7n t\u01b0 d\u00e2n s\u1ed1 \u0103n 50 gam m\u1ed7i ng\u00e0y): nguy c\u01a1 m\u1eafc ung th\u01b0 ru\u1ed9t trong \u0111\u1eddi, t\u00ednh \u0111\u1ebfn 85 tu\u1ed5i, l\u00e0 7,9% \u1edf ng\u01b0\u1eddi kh\u00f4ng \u0103n th\u1ecbt ch\u1ebf bi\u1ebfn v\u00e0 9,3% \u1edf ng\u01b0\u1eddi \u0103n 50 gam m\u1ed7i ng\u00e0y (English &#038; Slevin, 2015). Ph\u00e9p t\u00ednh:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Ki\u1ec3m tra t\u01b0\u01a1ng \u0111\u1ed1i: 7,9% \u00d7 1,18 \u2248 9,3%.<\/li>\n\n<li>Ch\u00eanh l\u1ec7ch tuy\u1ec7t \u0111\u1ed1i: 9,3% tr\u1eeb 7,9% = 1,4 \u0111i\u1ec3m ph\u1ea7n tr\u0103m.<\/li>\n\n<li>Quy ra 1.000 ng\u01b0\u1eddi: kho\u1ea3ng 79 ng\u01b0\u1eddi so v\u1edbi 93 ng\u01b0\u1eddi, t\u1ee9c th\u00eam kho\u1ea3ng 14 ng\u01b0\u1eddi tr\u00ean 1.000.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">M\u1ee9c t\u0103ng n\u00e0y c\u00f3 th\u1eadt, nh\u01b0ng kh\u00e1c r\u1ea5t xa c\u00e1ch hi\u1ec3u &#8220;18% ng\u01b0\u1eddi \u0103n s\u1ebd m\u1eafc b\u1ec7nh&#8221;.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">S\u1ed1 ng\u01b0\u1eddi c\u1ea7n \u0111i\u1ec1u tr\u1ecb (NNT) gi\u00fap hi\u1ec3u con s\u1ed1 ra sao?<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">NNT (number needed to treat) l\u00e0 s\u1ed1 ng\u01b0\u1eddi c\u1ea7n \u0111i\u1ec1u tr\u1ecb \u0111\u1ec3 ng\u0103n th\u00eam m\u1ed9t k\u1ebft c\u1ee5c x\u1ea5u, b\u1eb1ng 1 chia m\u1ee9c gi\u1ea3m nguy c\u01a1 tuy\u1ec7t \u0111\u1ed1i. V\u00ed d\u1ee5 c\u1ee7a Trung t\u00e2m Y h\u1ecdc Th\u1ef1c ch\u1ee9ng, \u0110\u1ea1i h\u1ecdc Oxford: n\u1ebfu m\u1ed9t thu\u1ed1c l\u00e0m gi\u1ea3m kh\u1ea3 n\u0103ng x\u1ea3y ra k\u1ebft c\u1ee5c x\u1ea5u t\u1eeb 50% xu\u1ed1ng 30%, m\u1ee9c gi\u1ea3m tuy\u1ec7t \u0111\u1ed1i l\u00e0 0,5 tr\u1eeb 0,3 = 0,2 v\u00e0 NNT = 1 chia 0,2 = 5 (Centre for Evidence-Based Medicine [CEBM], n.d.).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">H\u00e3y so s\u00e1nh hai thu\u1ed1c gi\u1ea3 \u0111\u1ecbnh c\u00f9ng &#8220;gi\u1ea3m 50% nguy c\u01a1&#8221;:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Thu\u1ed1c A: nguy c\u01a1 t\u1eeb 40% xu\u1ed1ng 20%. Gi\u1ea3m tuy\u1ec7t \u0111\u1ed1i 0,2, NNT = 1 chia 0,2 = 5.<\/li>\n\n<li>Thu\u1ed1c B: nguy c\u01a1 t\u1eeb 2% xu\u1ed1ng 1%. Gi\u1ea3m tuy\u1ec7t \u0111\u1ed1i 0,01, NNT = 1 chia 0,01 = 100.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">V\u1edbi thu\u1ed1c B, trung b\u00ecnh 100 ng\u01b0\u1eddi d\u00f9ng th\u00ec m\u1edbi c\u00f3 th\u00eam 1 ng\u01b0\u1eddi tr\u00e1nh \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c k\u1ebft c\u1ee5c x\u1ea5u. V\u00ed d\u1ee5 th\u1eadt: ch\u1ee5p X-quang tuy\u1ebfn v\u00fa \u0111\u1ec3 t\u1ea7m so\u00e1t th\u01b0\u1eddng \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c m\u00f4 t\u1ea3 l\u00e0 gi\u1ea3m 25% nguy c\u01a1 t\u1eed vong do ung th\u01b0 v\u00fa, nh\u01b0ng theo b\u1eb1ng ch\u1ee9ng t\u1ed1t nh\u1ea5t, m\u1ee9c gi\u1ea3m tuy\u1ec7t \u0111\u1ed1i ch\u1ec9 v\u00e0o kho\u1ea3ng 1 tr\u00ean 1.000 ph\u1ee5 n\u1eef; trong m\u1ed9t nghi\u00ean c\u1ee9u tr\u00ean 150 b\u00e1c s\u0129 ph\u1ee5 khoa, m\u1ed9t ph\u1ea7n ba kh\u00f4ng hi\u1ec3u \u0111\u00fang con s\u1ed1 25%, c\u00f3 ng\u01b0\u1eddi t\u01b0\u1edfng l\u00e0 250 tr\u00ean 1.000 (Gigerenzer, 2009).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">\u0110\u1ecdc tin &#8220;t\u0103ng nguy c\u01a1&#8221; th\u1ebf n\u00e0o cho t\u1ec9nh t\u00e1o?<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">H\u00e3y \u0111\u1ed5i con s\u1ed1 ph\u1ea7n tr\u0103m th\u00e0nh &#8220;bao nhi\u00eau ng\u01b0\u1eddi tr\u00ean 1.000 ng\u01b0\u1eddi&#8221; b\u1eb1ng n\u0103m c\u00e2u h\u1ecfi:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>T\u0103ng ho\u1eb7c gi\u1ea3m t\u1eeb m\u1ee9c bao nhi\u00eau l\u00ean m\u1ee9c bao nhi\u00eau?<\/li>\n\n<li>Quy ra tr\u00ean 100 hay 1.000 ng\u01b0\u1eddi th\u00ec ch\u00eanh l\u1ec7ch l\u00e0 m\u1ea5y ng\u01b0\u1eddi?<\/li>\n\n<li>Trong kho\u1ea3ng th\u1eddi gian n\u00e0o: m\u1ed9t n\u0103m, m\u01b0\u1eddi n\u0103m hay c\u1ea3 \u0111\u1eddi?<\/li>\n\n<li>\u1ede nh\u00f3m ng\u01b0\u1eddi n\u00e0o, c\u00f3 gi\u1ed1ng b\u1ea1n kh\u00f4ng?<\/li>\n\n<li>Nghi\u00ean c\u1ee9u l\u00e0m tr\u00ean ng\u01b0\u1eddi hay tr\u00ean \u0111\u1ed9ng v\u1eadt, v\u00e0 c\u00f3 bao nhi\u00eau ng\u01b0\u1eddi tham gia? Hai b\u00e0i <a href=\"https:\/\/dykhoa.com\/blog\/thu-nghiem-tren-chuot-co-ap-dung-cho-nguoi\/\">th\u1eed nghi\u1ec7m tr\u00ean chu\u1ed9t c\u00f3 \u00e1p d\u1ee5ng \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c cho ng\u01b0\u1eddi kh\u00f4ng<\/a> v\u00e0 <a href=\"https:\/\/dykhoa.com\/blog\/nghien-cuu-it-nguoi-tham-gia-tin-duoc-den-dau\/\">nghi\u00ean c\u1ee9u \u00edt ng\u01b0\u1eddi tham gia tin \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c \u0111\u1ebfn \u0111\u00e2u<\/a> s\u1ebd gi\u00fap b\u1ea1n tr\u1ea3 l\u1eddi c\u00e2u h\u1ecfi n\u00e0y.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Gigerenzer (2009) coi vi\u1ec7c hi\u1ec3u kh\u00e1c bi\u1ec7t gi\u1eefa nguy c\u01a1 tuy\u1ec7t \u0111\u1ed1i v\u00e0 t\u01b0\u01a1ng \u0111\u1ed1i l\u00e0 m\u1ed9t y\u00eau c\u1ea7u \u0111\u1ea1o \u0111\u1ee9c, v\u00e0 \u0111\u1ec1 ngh\u1ecb d\u1ea1y t\u01b0 duy th\u1ed1ng k\u00ea t\u1eeb nh\u1ecf. Quy tr\u00ecnh \u0111\u1ea7y \u0111\u1ee7 h\u01a1n c\u00f3 trong b\u00e0i <a href=\"https:\/\/dykhoa.com\/blog\/kiem-tra-nghien-cuu-chia-se-tren-mang\/\">c\u00e1ch ki\u1ec3m tra m\u1ed9t nghi\u00ean c\u1ee9u \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c chia s\u1ebb tr\u00ean m\u1ea1ng<\/a> v\u00e0 <a href=\"https:\/\/dykhoa.com\/blog\/kiem-chung-thong-tin-khoa-hoc\/\">chuy\u00ean \u0111\u1ec1 Ki\u1ec3m ch\u1ee9ng th\u00f4ng tin khoa h\u1ecdc<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">C\u00e2u h\u1ecfi th\u01b0\u1eddng g\u1eb7p<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">&#8220;G\u1ea5p \u0111\u00f4i nguy c\u01a1&#8221; c\u00f3 ph\u1ea3i l\u00fac n\u00e0o c\u0169ng l\u00e0 chuy\u1ec7n nh\u1ecf kh\u00f4ng?<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Kh\u00f4ng. T\u1eeb 1 l\u00ean 2 tr\u00ean 7.000 ng\u01b0\u1eddi l\u00e0 th\u00eam 1 ng\u01b0\u1eddi tr\u00ean 7.000 (Gigerenzer, 2009); nh\u01b0ng n\u1ebfu nguy c\u01a1 ban \u0111\u1ea7u l\u00e0 20% th\u00ec g\u1ea5p \u0111\u00f4i th\u00e0nh 40%, t\u1ee9c th\u00eam 200 ng\u01b0\u1eddi tr\u00ean 1.000.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Ng\u01b0\u1eddi vi\u1ebft tin s\u1ee9c kh\u1ecfe n\u00ean tr\u00ecnh b\u00e0y con s\u1ed1 th\u1ebf n\u00e0o?<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">N\u00ean \u0111\u01b0a c\u1ea3 hai con s\u1ed1 v\u00e0 \u01b0u ti\u00ean d\u1ea1ng &#8220;x ng\u01b0\u1eddi tr\u00ean 1.000 ng\u01b0\u1eddi&#8221; (Gigerenzer, 2009), v\u00ec con s\u1ed1 t\u01b0\u01a1ng \u0111\u1ed1i d\u1ec5 \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c c\u1ea3m nh\u1eadn l\u00e0 l\u1edbn h\u01a1n (Akl v\u00e0 c\u1ed9ng s\u1ef1, 2011). B\u00e0i <a href=\"https:\/\/dykhoa.com\/blog\/truyen-thong-rui-ro-va-khung-hoang-trong-khoa-hoc\/\">truy\u1ec1n th\u00f4ng r\u1ee7i ro v\u00e0 kh\u1ee7ng ho\u1ea3ng trong khoa h\u1ecdc<\/a> b\u00e0n th\u00eam v\u1ec1 c\u00e1ch n\u00f3i chuy\u1ec7n r\u1ee7i ro v\u1edbi c\u00f4ng ch\u00fang.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">NNT c\u00e0ng nh\u1ecf th\u00ec ph\u01b0\u01a1ng ph\u00e1p c\u00e0ng t\u1ed1t?<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">NNT nh\u1ecf ngh\u0129a l\u00e0 c\u1ea7n \u0111i\u1ec1u tr\u1ecb \u00edt ng\u01b0\u1eddi h\u01a1n \u0111\u1ec3 th\u00eam m\u1ed9t ng\u01b0\u1eddi \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c l\u1ee3i (CEBM, n.d.), nh\u01b0ng c\u00f2n ph\u1ea3i c\u00e2n nh\u1eafc t\u00e1c d\u1ee5ng ph\u1ee5, chi ph\u00ed v\u00e0 ho\u00e0n c\u1ea3nh ri\u00eang. Quy\u1ebft \u0111\u1ecbnh c\u00e1 nh\u00e2n n\u00ean b\u00e0n v\u1edbi nh\u00e2n vi\u00ean y t\u1ebf.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">\u0110i\u1ec1u g\u00ec n\u00ean nh\u1edb?<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Con s\u1ed1 &#8220;t\u0103ng 50%&#8221; ch\u1ec9 c\u00f3 \u00fd ngh\u0129a khi \u0111i k\u00e8m m\u1ee9c nguy c\u01a1 ban \u0111\u1ea7u. H\u00e3y \u0111\u1ed5i ra &#8220;bao nhi\u00eau ng\u01b0\u1eddi tr\u00ean 1.000 ng\u01b0\u1eddi&#8221;, h\u1ecfi v\u1ec1 th\u1eddi gian v\u00e0 nh\u00f3m \u0111\u1ed1i t\u01b0\u1ee3ng, r\u1ed3i m\u1edbi quy\u1ebft \u0111\u1ecbnh c\u00f3 n\u00ean lo l\u1eafng hay thay \u0111\u1ed5i th\u00f3i quen. C\u00e1ch \u0111\u1ecdc n\u00e0y kh\u00f4ng l\u00e0m b\u1ea1n coi nh\u1eb9 r\u1ee7i ro th\u1eadt, m\u00e0 gi\u00fap \u0111\u1eb7t r\u1ee7i ro v\u00e0o \u0111\u00fang t\u1ea7m c\u1ee7a n\u00f3.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">B\u00e0i vi\u1ebft mang t\u00ednh th\u00f4ng tin, kh\u00f4ng thay th\u1ebf t\u01b0 v\u1ea5n y khoa cho t\u1eebng c\u00e1 nh\u00e2n.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\"\/>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>\u0110\u00f4i l\u1eddi gi\u1edbi thi\u1ec7u<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">B\u00e0i vi\u1ebft n\u00e0y \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c t\u1ed5ng h\u1ee3p b\u1edfi Nguy\u1ec5n Ho\u00e0ng Anh Khoa (<a href=\"https:\/\/dykhoa.com\/blog\/dy-khoa-la-ai\/\">Dy Khoa<\/a>), gi\u1ea3ng vi\u00ean Khoa Quan h\u1ec7 c\u00f4ng ch\u00fang v\u00e0 Truy\u1ec1n th\u00f4ng, Tr\u01b0\u1eddng \u0110\u1ea1i h\u1ecdc V\u0103n Lang, v\u00e0 l\u00e0 ng\u01b0\u1eddi t\u1ed1t nghi\u1ec7p Th\u1ea1c s\u0129 Truy\u1ec1n th\u00f4ng Khoa h\u1ecdc v\u00e0 Thu h\u00fat C\u00f4ng ch\u00fang (Science Communication and Public Engagement) t\u1ea1i Universiti Malaya (UM), Malaysia. \u0110\u00e2y l\u00e0 l\u0129nh v\u1ef1c chuy\u00ean m\u00f4n c\u1ed1t l\u00f5i m\u00e0 anh \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c \u0111\u00e0o t\u1ea1o b\u00e0i b\u1ea3n v\u00e0 ti\u1ebfp t\u1ee5c theo \u0111u\u1ed5i trong nghi\u00ean c\u1ee9u, gi\u1ea3ng d\u1ea1y v\u00e0 th\u1ef1c h\u00e0nh ngh\u1ec1 nghi\u1ec7p.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">N\u1ebfu b\u1ea1n th\u1ea5y b\u00e0i vi\u1ebft c\u00f3 sai s\u00f3t ho\u1eb7c mu\u1ed1n g\u00f3p \u00fd, vui l\u00f2ng g\u1eedi email v\u1ec1 hi@dykhoa.com.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<details class=\"wp-block-details dk-refs is-layout-flow wp-block-details-is-layout-flow\"><summary>T\u00e0i li\u1ec7u tham kh\u1ea3o (5 ngu\u1ed3n)<\/summary>\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Akl, E. A., Oxman, A. D., Herrin, J., Vist, G. E., Terrenato, I., Sperati, F., Costiniuk, C., Blank, D., &amp; Sch\u00fcnemann, H. (2011). Using alternative statistical formats for presenting risks and risk reductions. <em>Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews, 2011<\/em>(3), CD006776. https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1002\/14651858.CD006776.pub2 (b\u1ea3n m\u1edf: https:\/\/pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov\/articles\/PMC6464912\/)<\/li>\n\n<li>Centre for Evidence-Based Medicine. (n.d.). <em>Number needed to treat (NNT)<\/em>. University of Oxford. https:\/\/www.cebm.ox.ac.uk\/resources\/ebm-tools\/number-needed-to-treat-nnt<\/li>\n\n<li>English, D., &amp; Slevin, T. (2015, ng\u00e0y 30 th\u00e1ng 10). <em>How to interpret IARC findings on red and processed meat as cancer risk factors<\/em>. Union for International Cancer Control. https:\/\/uicc.org\/news\/how-interpret-iarc-findings-red-and-processed-meat-cancer-risk-factors<\/li>\n\n<li>Gigerenzer, G. (2009). Making sense of health statistics. <em>Bulletin of the World Health Organization, 87<\/em>(8), 567. https:\/\/doi.org\/10.2471\/BLT.09.069872 (b\u1ea3n m\u1edf: https:\/\/scielosp.org\/pdf\/bwho\/2009.v87n8\/567-567\/en)<\/li>\n\n<li>International Agency for Research on Cancer. (2015, ng\u00e0y 26 th\u00e1ng 10). <em>IARC Monographs evaluate consumption of red meat and processed meat<\/em> (Th\u00f4ng c\u00e1o b\u00e1o ch\u00ed s\u1ed1 240). https:\/\/www.iarc.who.int\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/07\/pr240_E.pdf<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/details>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>&#8220;T\u0103ng nguy c\u01a1 50%&#8221; ch\u01b0a n\u00f3i b\u1ea1n c\u00f3 bao nhi\u00eau kh\u1ea3 n\u0103ng m\u1eafc b\u1ec7nh. C\u00e1ch \u0111\u1ed5i con s\u1ed1 ph\u1ea7n tr\u0103m th\u00e0nh s\u1ed1 ng\u01b0\u1eddi tr\u00ean 1.000, k\u00e8m v\u00ed d\u1ee5 th\u1eadt.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":7055,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[9,3],"tags":[426,892,893,895,894],"dk_series":[1187],"class_list":["post-7056","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-ly-thuyet-mo-hinh","category-truyen-thong-khoa-hoc","tag-kiem-chung-thong-tin","tag-nguy-co-tuong-doi","tag-nguy-co-tuyet-doi","tag-nnt","tag-so-lieu-suc-khoe","dk_series-kiem-chung-thong-tin-khoa-hoc"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v28.7 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Nguy c\u01a1 t\u01b0\u01a1ng \u0111\u1ed1i v\u00e0 tuy\u1ec7t \u0111\u1ed1i: \u0111\u1ecdc &quot;t\u0103ng 50%&quot; th\u1ebf n\u00e0o?<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Ph\u00e2n bi\u1ec7t nguy c\u01a1 t\u01b0\u01a1ng \u0111\u1ed1i v\u00e0 tuy\u1ec7t \u0111\u1ed1i: c\u00e1ch \u0111\u1ed5i &quot;t\u0103ng nguy c\u01a1 50%&quot; th\u00e0nh s\u1ed1 ng\u01b0\u1eddi tr\u00ean 1.000, k\u00e8m v\u00ed d\u1ee5 th\u1eadt v\u00e0 c\u00e1ch t\u00ednh NNT d\u1ec5 hi\u1ec3u.\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/dykhoa.com\/blog\/nguy-co-tuong-doi-va-tuyet-doi\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"vi_VN\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Nguy c\u01a1 t\u01b0\u01a1ng \u0111\u1ed1i v\u00e0 tuy\u1ec7t \u0111\u1ed1i: \u0111\u1ecdc &quot;t\u0103ng 50%&quot; th\u1ebf n\u00e0o?\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Ph\u00e2n bi\u1ec7t nguy c\u01a1 t\u01b0\u01a1ng \u0111\u1ed1i v\u00e0 tuy\u1ec7t \u0111\u1ed1i: c\u00e1ch \u0111\u1ed5i &quot;t\u0103ng nguy c\u01a1 50%&quot; th\u00e0nh s\u1ed1 ng\u01b0\u1eddi tr\u00ean 1.000, k\u00e8m v\u00ed d\u1ee5 th\u1eadt v\u00e0 c\u00e1ch t\u00ednh NNT d\u1ec5 hi\u1ec3u.\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/dykhoa.com\/blog\/nguy-co-tuong-doi-va-tuyet-doi\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"Dy Khoa Blog\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:author\" content=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/zykhoa\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2026-10-16T09:00:00+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2026-10-20T12:41:14+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/dykhoa.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/nguy-co-tuong-doi-va-tuyet-doi.webp\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"1200\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"675\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/webp\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"Dy Khoa\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"Dy Khoa\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"11 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\\\/\\\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"Article\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/dykhoa.com\\\/blog\\\/nguy-co-tuong-doi-va-tuyet-doi\\\/#article\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/dykhoa.com\\\/blog\\\/nguy-co-tuong-doi-va-tuyet-doi\\\/\"},\"author\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/dykhoa.com\\\/#person\"},\"headline\":\"&#8220;T\u0103ng nguy c\u01a1 50%&#8221; ngh\u0129a l\u00e0 g\u00ec? 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